180s0
140+3
100+17
Completed Match
Full breakdown modeEuropean Darts Grand Prix • Quarterfinals • 19 Apr 2026, 17:43 UTC • Best of 11 legs
WinnerRoss Smith
Score4–6
ModeFull breakdown
AI match summary
Post-match readNathan Aspinall holds a clear form advantage in three-dart average and first nine, offsetting his historical deficit. Despite a slight class edge for Ross Smith, the recent form data supports a lean toward Nathan Aspinall.
Edge result
Pre-match lean was on the wrong sideEdge missed
The pre-match model leaned the other way, so the post-match read now needs to explain what performance gap broke the original setup.
Player performance comparison
Final stat splitNathan Aspinall avg90.2
Ross Smith avg93.4
Nathan Aspinall checkout80.0%
Ross Smith checkout43.0%
Core match stats
Better values highlightedNathan AspinallRoss Smith
90.2
3-dart averageRoss Smith edge
93.4
97.4
First 9 averageRoss Smith edge
104.5
80.0%
Checkout %Nathan Aspinall edge
43.0%
17
100+Nathan Aspinall edge
6
3
140+Ross Smith edge
8
0
180sRoss Smith edge
2
120
Highest checkoutNathan Aspinall edge
87
Key performance insights
Driven by the final stat split and leg availabilityRoss Smith created the cleaner scoring base with a 3.2 point edge in 3-dart average.
Nathan Aspinall was the sharper finisher, clearing chances 37.0 percentage points better on doubles.
Ross Smith set the tone earlier in legs, opening with a 7.1 point First 9 advantage.
Scoring summary
Power scoring and volume180s2
140+8
100+6
Finishing summary
Checkout quality and conversionCheckout %80.0%
Highest checkout120
Checkouts4/5
Checkout %43.0%
Highest checkout87
Checkouts6/14
Momentum strip
Match flow by legL1Ross Smith
L2Nathan Aspinall
L3Nathan Aspinall
L4Ross Smith
L5Ross Smith
L6Ross Smith
L7Nathan Aspinall
L8Ross Smith
L9Nathan Aspinall
L10Ross Smith
Leg-by-leg table
10 legs capturedLegWinnerDartsCheckout
Set 1 · Leg 1
Ross Smith
16
16
Set 1 · Leg 2
Nathan Aspinall
14Fast leg
60
Set 1 · Leg 3Streak of 2
Nathan Aspinall
13Fast leg
40
Set 1 · Leg 4
Ross Smith
12Fast leg
87
Set 1 · Leg 5Streak of 2
Ross Smith
14Fast leg
70
Set 1 · Leg 6Streak of 3
Ross Smith
17
56
Set 1 · Leg 7
Nathan Aspinall
20
52
Set 1 · Leg 8
Ross Smith
13Fast leg
32
Set 1 · Leg 9
Nathan Aspinall
15Fast leg
120
Set 1 · Leg 10
Ross Smith
17
9
Match stats
2 player rowsNathan Aspinall
3-dart avg90.2
First 997.4
Checkout80.0% (4/5)
180s0
High checkout120
100+ checkouts1
Ross Smith
3-dart avg93.4
First 9104.5
Checkout43.0% (6/14)
180s2
High checkout87
100+ checkouts0
AI edge post-mortem
Work in progressThe edge missed. The simplest culprit is finishing: Nathan Aspinall outperformed on doubles, which is often enough to flip a match even when the original pre-match lean looked reasonable. Final score: 4–6.